Brain Fertilizer

Last year, we had a youth movement started.
We were careful to sign FAs of less than 28 years of age, only (except for DE).
We got the best LT on the market we could get without over-paying, and that LT wasn't all that good; just average.
From the very beginning of the season, we had an undrafted rookie nickel back. We had an undrafted rookie as our backup MLB. We tried to give our 2nd year QB the starting job.

Our offense was horrible from the start. We couldn't get the offense going most of the time. It would disappear for an entire half of the game. Our #1 WR was injured almost from the very first play of the season. Huard throws tons of INTs. LJ struggles to find room to run, gets hit behind the line constantly.

But by midseason, we were 4-4, and had battled back from an 0-2 start. LJ was starting to get 100-yd games. Huard was getting beat up behind a porous line. Bowe stepped up and took over the #1 WR position, but was still raw/inexperienced enough to get shut down in games. Defenses stacked the box, knowing that they could smother LJ if it was a run, but the same play call would allow them to get pressure on Huard before he could deliver the ball if it was a pass. Huard got dinged up, bruised and battered. No WR stepped up to be a good #2 if Bowe and TG were covered. Our new, young DL players hadn't caught on yet. Our MLB was often out of posiiton. Our #1 CB had to give a huge cushion to avoid getting burnt deep, and had pretty much lost his ability to stop the run.

But we were still 4-4, and had beat San Diego in San Diego.

Then LJ got hurt. Then Priest re-injured his neck. Then Huard couldn't move the ball anymore (and could barely walk, he was hit so much). Kolby Smith couldn't stay healthy and on the field. Gilbert Harris showed he wasn't an NFL starter. Jackie Battle showed he wasn't ready. Jeff Webb was inconsistent. Donnie Edwards couldn't stay healthy and on the field. Boone wore down. Croyle got hammered behind the same porous line.

We ended up 4-12.

But!

1) We still ended up in the top half on defense, including leading the league in forcing 3-and-outs
2) We significantly increased our quality depth at TE, RB, and WR
3) No matter how many mistakes Flowers might make, he represents a significant upgrade over Ty "Oops" Law
4) We likely increased our quality depth at CB and S...our starting NB has been pushed down the depth chart by increased talent on the roster
5) Tyler and McBride are showing significant improvement at DE and DT
6) LJ is not just back to health, he enacted a healthier eating/exercise plan that has made him stronger and faster than at any time in the last 18 months
7) We have a new OC who has clearly developed an effective O-plan, one that uses our strengths and will protect the QB

Our only downgrade on defense is losing Jared Allen. But the addition of Dorsey and the improvement of McBride and Tyler should end up in about equal pressure from the defense. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting the same number of sacks and FF as last year from the D-line as a group (about 25, I think, with 15.5 from JA and 7.5 from Hali last year, and a scattering from everyone else; 25 should be easy to get, with 11 from Hali, 3 from McBride, 3 from Tyler, 3 from Dorsey, and 5 from everyone else not being impossible). Demorrio Williams and DJ should increase the overall number of sacks from the LB, too (I think we had only about 10 total from them last year).

The only downgrade on offense is...well, we didn't downgrade anywhere on offense.
I think Albert will be at least as good as McIntosh was last year on the left. And the right should be better than Welbourn/Perry/Turley was last year...there's almost no way they could be as bad. Niswanger has already shown he's an upgrade over Weigmann, and Waters is playing better than last year.
Bowe won't be any worse, and likely has turned it up a notch. Webb is more consistent than last year, and has proven he deserves the #2 slot as a starter...but DvD and Price may have demonstrated to the coaches they have even more game than Webb. Franklin may even make an impact as a quality slot receiver (something we lacked last year).
Cottam will give us more options out of the 2 TE set.
We have QB roll-outs built in to help make things easier on the O-line.
We have what seems to be NFL-starter quality backups 4 deep at the RB position.
Page has already won several games for us at FS, but reports are he's playing even better this year. And while Pollard was inconsistant last year at SS, he has reportedly improved this off-season. And Morgan is faster and better in coverage than Pollard, yet a better tackler than Page, so will see significant playing time.

We have enough quality depth at most positions that our coaches will be able to set up substitution situations to minimize rookie mistakes.

One extra TD/game last year would have won an additional 4 games for us. And it would have put other games in reach, so that the other team couldn't go into a mode to protect a lead...meaning one extra TD/game would have meant a win against Green Bay, and maybe Jacksonville and Tennessee. Ifs and wishes, sure, but that's 11-5.

I predict that:
1) Our defense will not slide. We will be above average. We may still be around 13th/14th in yardage/scoring, but may slightly improve to just get in the top 10. We will not lead the league in forcing 3-and-outs again, but will be among the leaders for that, and for turnovers.
2) Our offense will get that one extra TD/game.
LJ and Cottam and Charles and improved-Croyle and DvD/Franklin/Price/improved-Webb pretty much guarantee that.

I'm going out on a limb and saying that: if we stay relatively healthy, we will go 11-5 this year.
But staying healthy isn't easy in the NFL. One injury to a key player that results in extensive missed time, and we go 8-8. Two, and we are 6-10.

It's going to be a fun year!