Brain Fertilizer: Trading Down: How? Why? When?

January 23, 2008

Trading Down: How? Why? When? « Kansas City Chiefs »

Anytime the NFL draft comes up, someone always says, "We should trade down to get more draft picks." And someone else inevitably replies, "You have to find someone willing to trade up to do that." Well, what does it take?

What are the scenarios by which someone will want to trade up?We traded up to get Sims. We traded up to get Tony Gonzalez. New Orleans traded up to get Ricky Williams. Cleveland enacted several trades last year to jump right in front of us to grab people they were afraid we'd take (both Brady Quinn, QB, and Eric Wright, CB).And that's the next part of the equation, isn't it?

There has to be someone at #5 that another team wants, and is afraid won't fall to them...Our only hope is that some guys currently rated at mid-first round has his stock rise high enough to make McFadden or one of the Longs drop to #5. Then, and only then, can a team at #8 or lower start getting excited enough to move up.

And that's the final part of the problem. Trading up to grab someone at #1 overall is too expensive, usually. The only way, normally, to get the #1 pick is to be the worst team in the NFL for that year. And that has a huge cost in fan support, merchandise, television appearance revenue, paid attendance, television advertising revenue, public good will, etc. It is so bad, that about the only way to redeem that cost is the excitement surrounding the #1 overall pick. Thus, trading up to get it is prohibitively expensive.

But when a player falls a few spots, it begins to look more attractive to trade up. Reggie Bush was nearly the consensus #1 overall pick, but Houston didn't want him. So he fell to #2, where the Saints were ecstatic to grab him. But let's say they, too, felt that there was a different player who would be more useful for a longer time, someone who would make significant contributions and pro-bowls for a decade or more, and let him fall. Suddenly, teams that weren't willing to trade up to the #1 or #2 slot see the chance of getting a virtual #1 pick for the cost of a #3 pick. There are suddenly more teams ready to make that pick.

It works for players lower down, too: Brady Quinn was not going to be the #1 overall, but most people considered him a decent top-15 pick. Yet no one wanted to trade up to get him. But by the time he dropped to the 22nd pick, Cleveland couldn't help themselves...but clearly, he wasn't worth trading up when he was at #15, right? That turned out to be more expensive than they originally thought, because they shorted themselves in the 2008 draft to get an early start at an expensive franchise QB. The money is committed, the pick is gone, and now they have a starting QB playing well enough to keep the franchise guy on the bench...but I digress.

Tony Gonzalez was not picked in the first eleven picks. KC wanted him, badly. But we weren't willing to move up to the #5 pick to grab him. But we were willing to trade to #12, and did so. Maybe the team holding #11 wasn't willing to deal; maybe the team at #13 wasn't willing to accept what we offered, so it's not 100% that Tony was worth it at #12 and no where else...but it is clear he was worth approximately that at the time.

This year, McFadden is currently one of the hot choices for #1 overall. So is Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long. Jake Long is clearly considered top five, but not #1 overall, as is Matt Ryan. Sedrick Ellis seems to be rising, too. So there are 6 players. It seems clear that Dorsey and Chris Long are taken #1/#2, no matter who goes first. It seems pretty clear neither of them would fall to #5. Then since we'd be happy to take Jake Long, and we want to explore the possibility of trading down, let's assume he goes at #3. If McFadden is available at #4, there will be 3-4 of teams clamoring to trade up for him. We wouldn't gain any advantage from that at all. It would only guarantee the right to take Ryan or Ellis. Since both of those are currently projected to go between 4 and 7 (with Ryan being on the higher side of that), it is unlikely either of them would trigger a trade.

However, if one of the top 4 teams took Ryan or Ellis (or both), that would put any one of the other top 4 (Dorsey, Long, Long, or McFadden) in our laps at #5, with a cinch that whoever it was would not drop to #6, or lower. But dropping that low would tantalize the #6, #7, or #8 picker, and they would probably be happy to trade spots with us to get the right to draft their dream player.

That would allow us to draft Clady or Baker at OT without spending way to much for them, and picking up another draft choice this year or the next (depending).

So that's our final analysis: We can and will trade down only if:1) Jake Long is drafted in the top 4.2) Ryan, Ellis, or someone else rises to the top 4, pushing someone else considered a Can't-Miss Top Three to drop to us at #5.3) That Can't Miss Top Three player isn't someone we want.

Posted by Nathan at 07:46 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)

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