Brain Fertilizer

Anyone who says the KMT LY win was "a step closer to PRC" is just spreading propaganda.

The LY election was about economics.

Hu Jintao changed PRC's (Jiang Zemin's) policy from "Bring about re-unification" to "Prevent independence".

Chen's popularity and relevence started to plummet pretty quickly thereafter, because he thrives on combativeness.

Absent the threat of imminent invasion from the PRC, most Taiwanese worried about making money. They complain that they used to have double the per capita income of ROK, and now are $3000/year per capita behind ROK. They complain that their per capita income is now lagging behind Indonesia.

They see every other country in the world making money off of trade/economic interaction with the PRC, and wonder why Chen won't let them do that.

8% of Taiwanese want to reunify. 9% want complete, total, recognized independence now. The other 83% just want to make money and have a secure, comfortable life.

Chen was only good at treating the PRC as an enemy, and all his policies reflect that. The people want a government that will stop restricting their chances to make money on the mainland.

The nail in Chen's coffin (after the corruption scandals that made him vulnerable) was that he pushed a campaign to erase Chiang Kai-shek. While Chiang is not loved by many, he is responsible for Taiwan's separate existence from the PRC. He and his son are responsible for Taiwan's economic and social development. Even martial law is a historical fact, even if resented. Chen tried to throw Chiang down the memory hole, to ignore his accomplishments because of his failings. Chinese society teaches to respect your elders, even if you hate them, so Chen's attempts to imitate Marxist historical rewriting just irritated too many people.

Ma will win the election. Taiwan will not re-unify with the PRC under Ma's watch.

From what I think, the problem will be that yes, Taiwan can make money in economic engagement with the PRC just like any other country...but the PRC doesn't claim other countries as territory. Taiwan's economy is huge for their size...but dwarfed by the PRC's. At some point, Taiwan will lose its economic sovereignty, and the PRC will be able to say: Re-unify, or we'll send you into the worst depression history has ever known, and Taiwan will unify with the PRC without a shot fired.

...unless the PRC collapses from internal strife first.