Brain Fertilizer

Here I go, breaking another intention. See, I wasn't going to try to do news/commentary/opinion.

But I have to.

Rehnquist is holding on for one reason: to let John Roberts break the trail for Rehnquist's replacement.

The compromise to avoid the nuclear option was widely reviled by people on both sides, after all was said and done. But it did get several people confirmed...and the Senate can always revisit the others later.

But trends matter, sometimes. Inertia can be hard to overcome. The breaking of the filibuster logjam made it harder, I think, to start it up again for Roberts. Despite his fairly innocuous history, if the filibuster had still been in place for the Circuit Court nominees, it would have been far easier to shift it right over to Roberts.

Now, however, the people of the United States are going to see a fairly smooth confirmation process, I think. And every single objection by liberals and/or Democrats is going to be noted, remembered, and addressed in the next nomination. As in, Edith Clements might have faced some resistance, but getting Roberts confirmed will make it harder for someone who called for a "female nominee" to object to Judge Clements. Or even Priscilla Owen or Janice Brown...although, I think those two might be saved for a third possible nomination. Because there are hints that Stevens might go if Rehnquist goes...and several of the Justices are old enough that they could easily weaken enough within the next two years to not want to continue serving.

Looking ahead (and getting into extremely uncertain musings), while the 2006 Senate elections are still up in the air, I do think there is a very good chance Republicans will pick up seats...so a 3rd and possibly even a 4th vacancy on the Supreme Court after 2006 could be extremely interesting. Not to mention, if Republicans win the 2008 Presidential election and maintain a majority in the Senate, there are several justices almost certain to not last another 6 years before retiring.

I'd love to see a few of the seats currently held by more liberal justices go to strict Constitutionalists, and have Democrats be unable to do anything but bleat and whine. But that's probably a pipe dream, alas.