Brain Fertilizer

Yeah, you irritated me. Not too severely, though.

I was just annoyed that you took a single tossed-off reference I made ("brutally conquering" -- I was thinking of Tibet) and made that an entire focus. The gist of my piece was that France was siding with China for all the wrong reasons, while extending my sympathies to the Taiwanese. I really don't think that much of the past is overly relevant to today; it's a very clear question -- in the conflict between China and Taiwan, who should we support, if either?

Taking the pragmatic approach has cost us too dearly in the past (the old "yeah, he's an SOB, but he's OUR SOB" bit that made us buddy up to some truly despicable people before), so I voted with my heart and chose the Taiwanese. I know that, economically, politically, and in a host of other ways we'd be better off backing the Communists (or, at least, staying out), but I don't like what they've done to Tibet, Hong Kong, Mongolia, and their continued sabre-rattling towards the Japanese. And that doesn't even begin to cover their current treatment of their own people.

And I think we are in an economic war with them -- one we're not doing too well in. They engage in wholesale pillaging of our intellectual properties, they use cheap labor that borders on slave wages, they toss up huge protective barriers to our products... in general, I really, REALLY don't like the Chinese government, and I relish the opportunity to stick it in their eye.

Add in Taiwan's support of us over the decades (often more supportive than we really deserve, considering how we've treated them, especially when we let them get kicked out of the UN), and it's a no-brainer: support your friends, oppose your enemies.

And if, in the process, you piss off the French, then everybody wins.

Simplistic, perhaps even jingoistic. But it works for me.

J.

This isn't the first time this has happened, tho, so I am trying to consider better ways to get my point across without being so annoying...

Nathan,

I tried to add a trackback to your article, but for some reason it didn't work.

Anyway, enjoyed this particular post and here are the comments I left on my site.
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Sometimes I find it really hard to think about China in a positive light, at least in regard to politics and that is why I enjoy reading posts like this from people like you who are able to offer a more rational and objective view.

I find it refreshing when someone puts something to me in a way that forces me stop and reevaluate my own thought processes.

As you mentioned, the US government isn't exactly all that innocent. In fact, I have to wonder if some of the blame for the current crisis in the Taiwan Strait doesn't belong to some of the policies put forward by the US government.

No, I'm not talking about the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. I'm talking about the need for it in the first place. What would the current situation be like if the US hadn't started the ball rolling in switching official recognition of government from Taipei to Beijing? It's just a hypothetical question, but non-the-less I think it is an interesting one and I'd be willing to dig into it a little deeper if anyone's interested.

Finally a refreshing post on this issue. You go on these online sites and all of them are for use of force, etc. etc.

The fact is, China like the status quo between China and Taiwan. Are they modernizing their military? Yep, is it a concern? Yes. But you have to look at what happened.

In 2001, prior to 9/11, Bush said "he'll do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan". Beijing took that as a declaration of formal support of Taiwan independence. Chen Shui-Bian took it the same way and started to make comments about changing the Constitution and from Republic of China to Republic of Taiwan (in other words, crossing the "line" that Beijing considers as declaration of independence). Both of those events prompted the fast and huge modernization efforts currently underway. Frankly, they'd rather spend that money on fixing the economic issues (particularly banking).

BTW, i read your Tibet post -- what you said is right. Dalai Lama DID invite Mao into Tibet and Mao secured the rights to based troops in the region, in exchange for a seat in the Politburo (there still is a seat reserved for Dalai Lama in the government today, though it's probably symbolic and carries no power). He did just that and a Tibetan uprising occured which resulted in over 2000+ soldiers killed. Obviously what Mao did next was to oliterate the opposition and that's where all the "Tibetan masscre" claim come from, but it was Tibetans that fired the first shot. What resulted is truly tragic to the Tibetan people, but i don't think we should make excuses for them either.

Actually Tony, China's modernization of its military started long before Bush even came into office.

During the Gulf War, China watched the might American military power in complete astonishment because they realized just how far behind they were. It was after this that the Chinese government began the rapid modernization of its military forces.

Then, in 1996 China sent to missiles over Taiwan in an attempt to intimidate the voters in Taiwan's Presidential elections. Clinton (can you believe it?) responded by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the South China Sea. That display of power on their shorelines freaked the hell out of the CCP and as such they stepped up their military modernization program up a few more notches.

Granted, W's comments in 2001 didn't help the situation, but neither did ramming an American EP-3 plane and forcing it to land on Hainan Island.

The comments Bush made in regards to defending Taiwan had both good and bad consequences, but I'm still not sure which one out weighs the other.

I'm glad he made those comments, myself. In a situation like what's going on between China and Taiwan, ambiguity is the biggest danger. I think President Bush clarified some aspects well enough that it may act as a deterrent against China being stupid.

Nathan,

The problem is that Chen Shui Bian took it as a clear support of him and his DPP party to move toward formal declaration of independence, which will guarantee a Chinese response. China knows it won't win against a direct confrontation with the US but they'll do it anyway. Bush, by saying that, encouraged Chen shui bian to move toward independence and the buildup intensified.

80% of the current missles pointing at Taiwan is right after Chen moved towards independence. I thinK China's view on Taiwan is that Taiwan is going to declare independence no matter what, and thanks in large part to Bush's support.

I don't think Bush would support Chen declaring independence. In fact, it's somewhat questionable that if Chen declares independence first and that results in a Chinese response, whether Bush will even order the US navy into the region. Certainly if China attacks without provocation, then US will support Taiwan 100%, but the real question to ponder on is whether Bush will act if Taiwan moves and defies what Bush told Chen in 2003 not to do so. Chen only backed down after Bush made those comments and his party haven't gotten enough votes in the legislature.

So the question is: which side is the biggest threat to stability in the Taiwan Strait?

I gotta say it is China, and so the proper target for warning speech is still China, regardless of how little I like Chen Shuibian (I call him Chen Xiaobian, for those of you who know Chinese) or his opportunistic political grandstanding.

Yeah, China can't stand against us in a prolonged, direct conflict. But they don't have to. All they have to do is have enough credible force to make it painful for the US to get involved militarily. If they can make us hesitate long enough to consolidate their hold on Taiwan, they probably won't have to fight us at all. And that's what most of their defense acquisition has been aimed at over the last decade, no?

Except that President Bush has said and shown that he won't allow China to take Taiwan militarily. That must give China pause; if they can't get the US to stay out based on a calculus of US military lives, they can't win. And China wants to win this one easily; loss of face would be far worse than any possible human/materiel destruction.

So I like President Bush's unambiguous support of Taiwan, even if I don't like what Taiwan is doing to escalate tension.