Brain Fertilizer

I didn't think that China had much of a navy to speak of. Japan has a small navy, but I hear that it is first-rate. Especially since it incorporates the latest technology and most of the weapons are supplied by us.

I believe that China would have a very hard time pushing Japan around for naval control over the local seas...

Nope, China has a fairly strong/powerful Navy, for the region. Nothing like the US or what the USSR had...but who does?
They are still in the process of converting from a brown-water (littoral, or coastal) Navy to Blue-water (capable of extensive missions away from shore for days or weeks), but they've come quite a distance.
They have a huge number of stealthy attack submarines, bunches of open ocean-worthy guided missile boats, and a couple of Sovremenny-class destroyers with Sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles (just about the best anti-ship missile out there). Not to mention Air-to-Surface anti-ship missiles launched from medium bombers...
If China went all-out, the Japanese Navy probably wouldn't be able to handle 'em, despite a clear technological superiority. Heck, the US wouldn't be able to scuttle the Chinese Navy without taking some significant losses. But a full-scale conflict between China and Japan is not going to happen without all-out war, and no one anticipates that at this time.
In a clash as they are discussing here, a few Chinese ships might catch an unarmed petrochemical survey vessel alone, or a small Chinese force might outnumber and threaten a single Japanese destroyer or something.
Which could be a precursor to something worse...

No matter what, no matter who would win, this isn't a good thing for the stability of the region, or for our interests there.

OK, I stand corrected about the Chinese navy, especially since I forgot about your military experience.

I did get a chance several years back to tour some Japanese destroyers at Alameda NAS in California. They seemed at least as capable as our more modern destroyers (Spruance, Arleigh Burke). I figured they could fend off small-scale attacks. Lacking a carrier battle group(or a carrier) would seem to put the Japanese navy at a disadvantage with a larger navy, however.

Far more worrisome is the fact that America probably wouldn't stand idle if Japan were seriously threatened with war.

Exactly.

They have our Aegis-class destroyers. The only thing is, their greatest strength is air defense, not surface defense...but still capable of surface defense, as well.

And, yes, the most worrisome aspect is that we would get involved. All of our allies in the region have just enough military force to hold the ground until we (the big guns) arrive, Japan included.

I would expect that individual ships of Japan's Navy could fend off 2- or even 3-1 odds. More, if they had air support. But my worry is that China might manage to get 4- and 5-1 odds, particularly if they can slip a submarine or two unnoticed into the area.

There was nothing wrong in anything you said, I think I was just envisioning a more threatening situation than you were. If China wants this, you can bet they are going to arrange a situation favorable to their forces.

...and who knows where it could go from there, yanno?

china WILL BE THE THREAT TO NOT ONLY jAPAN BY
2010, BUT BY 2022, A DEFINITE THREAT TO
THE u.s. tAIWAN IS JUST THE FIRST OF RED
CHINA'S GEOPOLITICAL AMBITIONS. tOTAL CONTROL
OF THE pACIFIC, BY 2030, IS BEIJING'S gOAL.
tHE u.s. must REGAIN TOTAL CONTROL OF THE
PANAMA CANAL, AS THE FIRST STEP--AND THE
TOTAL INDEPENDENCE FROM BEIJING, BY TAIWAN,
AS THE SECOND GOAL.