Brain Fertilizer

Inspired by NRO's Symposium, I predict:

-Iran will detonate a nuclear device.

-Shortly thereafter, North Korea will detonate a nuclear device.

-Iraq's elections will occur, with more than 90% of polling locations proceeding without incident. The other less-than-10% will be in Sunni-dominated portions of Fallujah, Ramadi, and Baghdad. Moderate Sunnis will panic and split from the extremist at the imminent probability of being shut out of a stable, functioning government. Terrorist attacks will drop off in number but increase in lethality until early- or mid-summer, when increasing numbers of terrorists arrested or killed as well as a broad lack of success in meeting objectives will result in mass defections from terrorist ranks.

-Afghanistan will remain stable and grow more peaceful. Terrorist attacks will be largely nuisances only, at a rate and effectiveness less than that of the various IRA split-offs in Great Britain.

-At least two US State Supreme Courts will mandate the legality of same-sex marriage over the expressed popular wish of the state's residents.

-Saudi Arabia will experience a growing insurgency that may flame into an open Civil War. The main issue will be that the House of Saud is no longer trustworthy to be the protectors of the Holy Sites of Mecca and Medina.

-China will have at least two large-scale anti-corruption riots resulting in 10-20 people dead.

-Fidel Castro will die. I have no idea what might happen after that. Other than an outpouring of grief and tribute from liberals dwarfing that of conservatives for Reagan's funeral, I mean.

-Senate Democrats will lose a battle to confirm an extremely conservative, strict constructionist to replace Chief Justice Renquist.

-I will finish a novel.

-There won't be a single movie worth watching put out by the US film industry.
Even if they make another installment of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Or even if they remake "Red Dawn".

-Michael Moore will lose 40 pounds on the Atkins' Plan, then do a scathing documentary blaming Atkins for not convincing him to try sooner.

-I'll go another 365 days of blogging without getting linked by Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit.

-Michelle Malkin will discuss immigration issues (Hey, I gotta make sure I get at least one right, don't I?)

-al-Zarqawi will be located and killed (not arrested). Osama bin Laden will remain unlocated for one more year.

-Taiwan will agree to allow direct flights to/from Mainland China.

-President Bush will attain an approval rating of 55% by the end of September and maintain it throughout the year.

-No major terrorist attacks will occur on US soil.

-Drilling an ANWR will be approved.

-Congress will attempt to address "Zero-Tolerance Policies" run amok in public schools, but will fail to resolve the issue.

-The national homocide rate will be near the lowest levels in 20 years. Automobile deaths will be near-record levels. The mainstream news media will have hundreds of articles decrying the "assault weapon" ban sunset, and the high vehicular death rate will be blamed on SUVs, if mentioned at all.

-Preparations to reduce US troops in Iraq to 10% of current levels will begin by December.

-My friend Jo will start socio-political blogging again.

...and I'm way beyond "reaching" with some of these predictions. Still, I predict I'll add at least 3 more by the end of the day.