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December 03, 2004

Taiwan-China War in 2010 « China/Taiwan »

Everything is falling into line with 2010 being the optimal year for China to invade Taiwan.

Sure, It might be a little earlier. They might go right after the Olympics are completed, depending on some residual good-will to temper criticism. It also might be a little later.

But there are two essential problems facing China: securing Taiwan militarily, and keeping the US out of the fray until they can accomplish said securing of Tawain.

The United States has agreed to the One China Policy. We don't act like it, because we sell arms to Taiwan and otherwise treat them as the separate state they are (does China collect any taxes from Taiwan? No? They aren't one nation then, are they?). But faced with a forcibly re-united Taiwan and a piece of paper signed by the President and approved by Congress that says Taiwan is a part of China, what could we do?

Our main strategy in earlier tense moments was to send a carrier fleet into the Taiwan Strait, betting that China couldn't do anything without infringing on our personal space, which would give us the pretext we needed to get involved on Taiwan's side.

But now they have Sunburn Anti-ship missiles, Su-27s and Su-30s, advanced attack submarines, and are increasing the accuracy of their short range ballistic missiles.

And now this.

All of the new and advanced weapon systems will be ready to go, on-line, and integrated into their battle plan between 2009-2012. I'm picking 2010 as a nice round figure.

Hopefully, some things can be done to defuse the situation before it gets that far, but not with the way Chen Shuibian has been acting...

Posted by Nathan at 08:22 AM | Comments (4)
» The LLama Butchers links with: Well, That sucks

Just look at China's personel figures. I can tell you China would take Taiwan the first chance that comes around. But not if America is sitting over in Taiwan like what America is doing in south korea. That's why north korea hasn't came to take SK yet.

Posted by: Iovinius Antonius Maxus at February 11, 2005 12:28 AM

Hmmm. I haven't put that much study into the matter, which frees me to make blindly ignorant statements.

I wonder about the viability of ~any~ seaborne invasion these days. The Taiwan Strait is a relatively wide body of open water for an invasion force of any size to cross. With enough anti-ship missles, launched from land, air, or sea, one would think that Taiwan could fend off itself.

Then there is the matter of the Japanese Self Defense forces - the Japanese Navy is a force to be reckoned with - the US might not have to act alone, and one might wonder, would Japan act unilaterally to defend Taiwan even if the US did not?

Just some thoughts...

Posted by: Matt Kaufman at March 18, 2005 07:04 PM

What is kind of worrying is China and Russia were teaming up and playing war games last week. Amongst other things, a huge invasion was practised. I just get this growing feeling a new world order may emerge is 10 or 20 years.

Posted by: matt mcewan at August 31, 2005 02:50 AM

yah..i get that feeling to..i'm only 16..but i come from the India/kasmir region.and ever since i realised what china and other growing powers were up to..i got that feeling..i think that the U.S is playing God wit to many things in order to profit would be pretty cool if growing countries like India/China and Brazil...started wars..dragging the rest of the world in there continents down with them..India would invade Pakistan..annex them..which moe than 2/3 of the pple in pakistan want..then use there navy to attack China.China invades Taiwan.or tries to,,America intervenes..Russia sides with China..japan and australia..then Britain to..attack China/Russia..E.U might stay neutral..Brazil attacks Colombia.. Veznizvuela..disrupts oil flow to U.S. and before you know it..the E.U invades north africa and the middle east after taking over most of north affrica and spilting the land amongst the countries in the E.U. India eats away at China..which is busy fighting Taiwan/U.S/Japan/Australia. and India annex's Nepal/takes back Kasmiri controled china. attacks burma..occupies them..then sends a crack Navy assualt force to take over Hong Kong. the eastern Indian navy. attacks China.throught Hong the interior. claiming territory as they proced..china nukes some 8,000 advancing Indian units. India..uses its supereor Air Force..bombs out the Bordering chinese airbases. and nukes 1 naval unit aproaching them near hong kong.. India allies to Taiwan/Japan/Australia. and Neutral withU.S becuz they supported the once the United India Once again..
war lasts at least a decade after several nukes hit opposite sides..Britain in the meanwhile r invading the Russians with the aid of the Australians and Japanese on the Eastern side..russia being tough as it is fights. Declaring war on U.S/Britain/Australia/Japan/taiwan/India. and conquers Ukraine and its other long lost countries in bloody wars lasting about 14 months. while the Middle East is Fighting the E.U and Isrealis who have allied together. the middle east ally with Russia and China and several African countries. so Britain Allies with the E.U and Israel..and now its the E.U/Israel/U.S/Japan/Taiwan/Australia/India/Britain/Brazil......Vs Russia/China/Middle Eastern Coalition/several African nations/nicaragua/Cuba/Venezvuela/Ecuador.Now we have about 5 to 10 years of world warring!..yay! ^_^...oh and pasific nations like Malasia and Indonesia..and philliphines..join to attack China which nukes more than 1/3 of there Navy and armies. so they retreat and defend their countries which china invades and the battle goes on. ohh! and India cuts into the heart of Russia..4,000 Kms above kasmir and attacks China/Russia with Indian/U.S/Australian special forces./400,000 troops combined.if u want to know how the story turns out..well i'll tell u..China is on the Brink of losing Tibet.which India claims more than 1/3 for their serveces to the Tibetians. and sets free the other 2/3rd. 40,000 Indian Troops secure hong kong and a perimeter 500 kms outside the city and annex it into India. China in the mean time..has held of the Allies and pinned down the Indians 500 kms outside of Hong Kong..which is lost to them..for now..and the Chinese send a suicide army of 675,000 troops and 57,000 special forces through Vietnam to Invade Indonesia and Malaysia..the Japanese with the U.S send a force of 480,000 troops to aid the 320,000 Pacific Army. meantime Taiwan and Australian forces are hold of a second wave of Chinese assualt force numbers around 36,000 on beach landings.Chinese forces establish a beach head 6 Kms Deep and 13 kms wide off Taipei city. the australians send a navy force to assuslt the chinese crack fleet unit and the taiwanese/Aussie force number 32,800 defend the city and the surrounding area.
eventually the chinese fleet is cut up by the U.S/mostly Australian fleet. they retreat..leaving behind the chinese forces..who have gone now 12 kms and 16 kms deep/wide off Taipei.they trench down until they r rescued..the taiwanese air force bombs the shit outta them and assualt the front lines via paratrooping and land assualt. australins come in from the sea numbering 9,000 and taiwanese assualt force is close to 12,500. they gain 6km by 6km front/sides leaving the chinese with only 6kms deep by 10 kms wide land left to defend. Indian/U.S forces on russia/China are counter assualted by the russians by 600,000 troops.the Indians/U.S forces defend the Indian land with Airforce aid from India/U.S. Russians advance and gain only 220,000 kms/square of lost land. they hold out for the winter..India/U.S clash with Russia only beating them slightly..Russians Demoralised retreat and wait until spring to counter attack.

Posted by: aj at October 14, 2005 05:23 AM
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