Brain Fertilizer

If you ask me, Kerry's lead has been artificial. As has been pointed out in numerous places, there was almost no bounce from his selection of Edwards as a running mate, there was almost no bounce from the convention, and Bush's numbers really didn't go down in the midst of some really vicious hammering by Democrat-leaning 527 groups and Michael Moore.

Sure, the things that should have pumped up Bush's numbers (like the excellent performance of the economy, the discrediting of Joe Wilson, Sandy Berger, and Richard Clarke, and the ad by the Swift Vote Veterans for Truth) aren't having much impact, either...but I think that is due to the national media downplaying events that might help President Bush or hurt John Kerry and simultaneously highlighting news that hurts Bush or makes him look bad. The information is out there...all it means is that it will probably take more time before the effect shows in opinion polls.

So take a look at this tracking history. For weeks now, Bush has been at either 45 or 46, but 4 days ago he was up to 48% and led over Kerry by 1%. Sure, all within statistical variations...but I still find it hopeful.

...and the Republican convention is still on the way. And the Olympics tends to pump up patriotism and national pride, which is more closely associated with Republicans. And, most importantly, Karl Rove has only just begun to make his presence/advice felt. Like Lance Armstrong and the Tour de France, knowing when to peak is the most important aspect. I see the seeds of Kerry's Disaster in the making. Kerry won't replace McGovern as the mark of futility, but President Bush will win in a landslide.